A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
